The recent U.S. attack on Venezuela has sent shockwaves through the region, creating a complex web of risks and opportunities for guerrilla groups operating along the Colombia-Venezuela border. This development has sparked fears of potential betrayal by Venezuelan officials and opened up the possibility of a larger-scale conflict if U.S. troops were to engage on the ground.
A Call for Unity
In a surprising move, the leader of a prominent guerrilla faction has called for armed groups to unite and resist the U.S. presence in Venezuela. Jorge Mantilla, an expert on armed conflicts, highlights the reconfiguration of security measures and the consolidation of power by the National Liberation Army (ELN), the region's most powerful guerrilla group.
The ELN's Anticipation and Ambitions
Mantilla reveals that the ELN has long expected a U.S. attack, with one of their chief negotiators, Pablo Beltrán, predicting such an event due to Venezuela's valuable resources. Furthermore, the ELN has a history of warning the Venezuelan regime about potential traitors within its ranks.
The attack presents an opportunity for the ELN to achieve their long-standing goal of becoming a continental guerrilla force, especially if the U.S. establishes a military presence in Venezuela or if the Venezuelan regime fragments.
A Controversial Proposal
Ivan Mordisco, leader of a splinter group from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), has issued a video statement advocating for guerrilla groups to unite with the Venezuelan military against the U.S. However, this proposal has been met with skepticism due to Mordisco's lack of trustworthiness and his status as one of Colombia's most wanted criminals.
The ELN's Longstanding Presence
Gerson Arias, a researcher with the Ideas for Peace Foundation, explains that the ELN, with an estimated force of 6,000 to 8,000, has no incentive to make peace with Mordisco's organization. The ELN operates in southern Venezuela, controlling vast territories rich in natural resources, and relies on illegal mining and drug trade for revenue.
The ELN's relationship with the Venezuelan regime dates back to the presidency of Hugo Chávez, and they share a common political ideology, viewing the defense of Venezuela's Bolivarian Revolution as a core duty.
A Complex Peace
Despite the U.S. providing funding to the Colombian military to combat armed groups, Eliana Paola Zafra, a human rights advocate, emphasizes the need for a comprehensive peace strategy. She advocates for empowering Latin American communities to defend life, peace, and human rights.
As the situation unfolds, the future of these guerrilla groups and their potential alliances remains uncertain, leaving room for speculation and debate.
